China

How Aggressive Is China?

August 29, 2016

Several policymakers and other experts have called China’s behavior, especially its activities in the South and East China Seas, ‘aggressive.’ This article compares China’s behavior with a suggested definition of ‘aggression’ based on the one enshrined in international law, and it finds that these experts’ use of the term ‘aggressive’ is inconsistent with this definition.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: A Case Study of Multifaceted Containment

June 02, 2016

Although some analysts have emphasized the importance of China’s becoming a “responsible stakeholder” in the international order, the United States has in effect blocked China’s full participation in a range of existing international institutions and attempted to undermine China’s efforts to create and lead new international institutions.

Defense & Security Analysis Journal Cover

The United States’ retreat from the Middle East and pivot to the Far East is likely to intensify

December 10, 2014

This article outlines the reasons why one should expect that the USA will shift more military forces to and focus more diplomatic efforts on the Far East and away from the Middle East. The term forecasting is employed, rather than prediction, to remind us that the statement holds only if no “black swans” appear, that is, if no major unexpected forces come into play. (This caveat deserves special attention given the poor record of those who predict international developments, as demonstrated vividly when the Arab Spring unexpectedly erupted in Tunisia and when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.) The US’s role is akin to that of a physician who finds two abnormalities in an X-ray and is influenced in choosing on which to base his intervention by subconscious motives. 

Armed Forces & Society Journal Cover

Air Sea Battle: A Case Study in Structural Inattention and Subterranean Forces

September 15, 2014

In response to China’s military modernization and growing anti-access/area denial capabilities, the US military has adopted an ‘‘Air Sea Battle’’ (ASB) concept entailing extensive strikes on the Chinese mainland. Critics argue that ASB creates grave escalation risks and may incite an expensive arms race. Less discussed, but also of serious concern, is that ASB was adopted with little to no civilian oversight, in a case of ‘‘structural inattention.’’ It has also been facilitated by ‘‘subterranean factors’’ including the interests of influential military contractors and the military’s own inclination toward conventional warfare.

Full article here.

Who Authorized Preparations for War With China

June 01, 2013

“Who Authorized Preparations for War With China,” Yale Journal of International Affairs, June, 2013.

Accommodating China

April 02, 2013

“Accommodating China“, Survival, April-May 2013. Chinese Translation: “阿米塔伊·埃兹欧尼:与中国和解.”

Refugee Resettlement: The Infighting in Washington

November 01, 1981

In early 1979 the Carter administration found itself facing a refugee crisis as mounting political tensions throughout Southeast Asia increased the number of people seeking asylum in America. Refugees began arriving in the spring of 1975 after the collapse of noncommunist regimes in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. The flow subsided somewhat until 1978, when renewed fighting generated a new wave of refugees. Thousands of ethnic Chinese fled Vietnam after the war erupted between Vietnam and China in 1979, and Vietnamese expansion also created a new flow of refugees from Laos and Cambodia into Thailand.

Forget About Copying Japan Inc

December 07, 1980

NOBODY HAS YET recommended that Americans wear kimonos to work, spend their evenings with bar girls or eat rice with short sticks. Never mind that most Japanese don't do these things either. In the present mania to do things the way the Japanese do, such subtleties are quickly overlooked. An intellectual fashion is like a disco pants fad: Everybody gets into it, whether it fits or not.

More ‘Humane’ Warfare in Vietnam?

May 01, 1966

The United States appears to be considering an expansion of the use of chemical weapons in Vietnam.